NFL Thanksgiving Betting Guide: Best Player Prop Picks and Trends

NFL Thanksgiving Betting Guide

Betting on NFL Thanksgiving games feels like a tradition as old as the holiday itself. This year’s lineup promises to be a treat for football fans across the country. The tripleheader will kick off with a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions at 12:30 p.m. ET. This long-standing tradition will be aired on FOX, and it’s bound to be an exciting game as both teams battle it out for potential playoff seeding.

In the second game of the day, the Washington Commanders will face off against the Dallas Cowboys. Scheduled for a 4:30 p.m. ET start, this NFC East rivalry is sure to attract turkey-stuffed bettors. The Commanders season is heading off the rails fast, and the Cowboys are beginning to look like Super Bowl contenders. Finally, the evening game will feature the San Francisco 49ers taking on the Seattle Seahawks. This NFC West showdown is set to take place at 8:20 p.m. ET, offering fans a thrilling end to a day filled with football excitement. With NFL playoff picture implications on the line for all three games, Thanksgiving Day/Night 2023 is sure to be a football feast for NFL player props bettors everywhere.

📈 NFL Thanksgiving Betting Lines & Picks

To be clear, following Colin Cowherd’s picks is one way to win on Thanksgiving, but we have some serious trends for you to consider.

Packers @ Lions

Two strong betting trends back the support of the Detroit Lions in the early game over the Packers. The Detroit Lions are 12-5 (70.6%) against the spread vs. the Green Bay Packers over their last 17 games. The Green Bay Packers are 1-4 (20%) off a win over their last 5 games

  • Since 2000, teams that enter Thanksgiving games with an 80% win percentage or better are 14-3 ATS (82.4%) and 16-1 SU (94.1%).
  • Lions are 8-0 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving in the past 30 seasons.
  • Lions are 10-1 SU (90.9%) as a favorite on Thanksgiving since 1990.
  • Jared Goff is 47-24-1 ATS (66.2%) over the last five seasons, the highest cover rate of any QB in that span (min. 20 starts).
  • Packers are 3-3 ATS and SU (50%) in Thanksgiving games over the past 20 seasons.
  • Jordan Love is 2-5 ATS (28.6%) in his last seven starts this season.

Commanders @ Cowboys

If you are hoping for plenty of points on Thanksgiving afternoon, check out this betting trend: The over hit in 14 of the Dallas Cowboys last 19 games (73%) at home off a win across the regular season and playoffs since the start of 2019

  • The Cowboys are 7-4 ATS (63.6%) and 10-1 SU (90.9%) when a favorite of seven or more points on Thanksgiving
  • Dallas is 5-4 ATS (55.6%) and 8-1 SU (88.9%) in such games since 2000. 
  •  Double-digit underdogs playing division opponents are 0-3 ATS. Washington is currently an 11-point underdog. 

49ers @ Seahawks

The Thanksgiving nightcap provides two betting trends in support of the Seahawks. The Seattle Seahawks are 55-28 (66%) off a loss over their last 83 games. The San Francisco 49ers are 1-4 (20%) against the spread on the road off a win over their last 5 games

  • Road favorites have gone 21-10 ATS (67.7%) and 28-3 SU (90.3%) on Thanksgiving Day since 2000.
  • Road favorites of 7-plus points are 8-1 ATS (88.9%) and 9-0 on Thanksgiving since 2003.
  • 49ers went 7-0 ATS and 7-0 vs. the rest of the division last year, and are 1-1 ATS (50%) and 2-0 SU this season.
  • 49ers have won nine straight games vs. NFC West opponents.
  • Brock Purdy is 4-1 ATS (80%) and SU in night games in his career.
  • Home underdogs are 1-22 SU in Thanksgiving games since 2005.
  • Seahawks are 2-2 SU in Thanksgiving games all-time.
  • Geno Smith is 0-3 ATS and SU against the 49ers in his career (all three meetings coming with Seahawks).

who is the public betting on?

Thursday, November 23SpreadHandleBetsTotalHandleBetsMoneyHandleBets
Green Bay Packers+7.522%26%47.578%64%+32014%13%
Detroit Lions-7.578%74%47.522%36%-41086%87%
Wash Commanders+1127%27%48.580%66%+44011%12%
Dallas Cowboys-1173%73%48.520%34%-60089%88%
San Francisco 49ers-771%82%43.545%61%-29095%89%
Seattle Seahawks+729%18%43.555%39%+2355%11%

Source: DraftKings Betting Splits

We will continue to update this page with more picks and trends leading up to Thanksgiving.

💰 Lions vs. Packers Player Props Picks

🏈 Green Bay Packers Prop Picks:

Jordan Love GB (QB) Passing Completions – Over 19.5 (-125) = 100% L5 games

Romeo Doubs GB (WR) Touchdowns – Over 0.5 (+240) = 80% L5 games

Jordan Love GB (QB) Longest Rush – Over 8.5 (-130) = 70% L10 games

Jordan Love GB (QB) Rushing Attempts – Under 3.5 (-135) = 70% L10 games

Christian Watson GB (WR) Receiving Yards – Under 42.5 (-115) = 70% L10 games

🏈 Detroit Lions Prop Picks:

Kalif Raymond DET (WR) Rush + Rec Yds – Over 14.5(-110) = 90% L10 games

Kalif Raymond DET (WR) Longest Reception – Over 9.5 (-120) = 80% L10 games

Jared Goff DET (QB) Passing Attempts – Over 32.5 (-125) = 80% L10 games

Jahmyr Gibbs DET (RB) Longest Rush – Over 13.5 (-130) = 80% L5 games

David Montgomery DET (RB) Receiving Yards – Over 5.5 (-130) = 70% L10 games

David Montgomery DET (RB) Touchdowns – Over 0.5 (-125) = 60% L5 games

Josh Reynolds DET (WR) Receptions – Over 1.5 (-120) = 70% L10 games

💰Commanders vs. Cowboys Player Props Picks

🏈 Washington Commanders Prop Picks:

Joey Slye WAS (K) Kicking Points – Over 5.5 (-125) = 80% L10 games

Sam Howell WAS (QB) Longest Rush – Over 9.5 (-105) = 80% L10 games

Terry McLaurin WAS (WR) Receptions – Over 4.5 (-130) = 80% L10 games

🏈 Dallas Cowboys Prop Picks:

Tony Pollard DAL (RB) Rushing Attempts – Under 15.5 (-115) = 80% L10 games

Dak Prescott DAL (QB) Passing Yards – Under 277.5 (-105) = 70% L10 games

Tony Pollard DAL (RB) Longest Rush – Over 14.5 (-110) = 70% L10 games

Dak Prescott DAL (QB) Passing Completions – Over 24.5 (+100) = 70% L10 games

NFL Player Props and Trends Data from Outlier.Bet

💰SF 49ers vs. Seahawks Player Props Picks

🏈 SF 49ers Prop Picks:

Brock Purdy SF (QB) Interceptions – Under 0.5 (-105) = 70% L10 games

Brock Purdy SF (QB) Passing Yards – Over 251.5 (-115) = 70% L10 games

George Kittle SF (TE) Longest Reception – Over 21.5 (-125) = 80% L5 games

🏈 Seahawks Prop Picks:

Zach Charbonnet SEA (RB) Longest Rush – Under 13.5 (-130) = 80% L5 games

DK Metcalf has exceeded 65.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games against top 10 rushing defenses (81.0 receiving yards/game average).

Pick: Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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