NFL Player Props Picks and Trends You need To Know for Week 17

NFL Week 17 prop picks

We only have two weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, so you better dig in and enjoy the big offering of NFL Player Props while you can.

The STB staff has provided the following to help you cash some tickets this week:

  1. Passing yard prop hit rates/trends over the last 10 games, plus our picks for week 17.
  2. Rushing yard prop hit rates/trends over the last 10 games, plus our picks for week 17.
  3. Receiving yard prop hit rates/trends over the last 10 games, plus our picks for week 17.
  4. Overall best NFL prop bet trends over the last 10 games

Seeing Tyrod Taylor listed 2nd with an 80% hit rate is a quick reminder that these rankings display the last 10 games played for each player. With that being said, Taylor is facing the horrid Chargers defense, so do with that what you want.

With so many “Unders” leading the recent pass-yard prop hit rates, let’s buck the trend and jump on Kyler Murray to surpass his passing yards total in Philly Sunday afternoon. The Eagles’ pass defense has improved in the past 2 weeks from 30th to 27th ranked in the NFL. Let’s remember who they faced. The NY Giants duo of DeVitto/Taylor and the Seahawks’ Drew Lock.

RANKNAMEPOSITIONBET TYPELINEODDSHIT RATEHIT %OPPDEF RANK
1J. HallQBPass Ydsu216.5-1152/2100VS GB13
2T. TaylorQBPass Ydsu197.5-1158/1080VS LA22
3J. StidhamQBPass Ydsu202.5-1158/1080VS LAC30
4T. TagovailoaQBPass Ydso235.5-1157/1070@ BAL6
5B. ZappeQBPass Ydsu204.5-1157/1070@ BUF9
6B. MayfieldQBPass Ydso233.5-1157/1070VS NO7
7J. BrissettQBPass Ydsu229.5-1157/1070VS SF16
8M. RudolphQBPass Ydsu206.5-1157/1070@ SEA19
9J. GoffQBPass Ydso258.5-1156/1060@ DAL5
10K. MurrayQBPass Ydsu223.5-1156/1060@ PHI27

We are completely ignoring the under trends on Vikings QB Jaren Hall due to situational timing. The Packers are ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed overall and #29 to QB rush yards allowed. Hall loved to run at BYY with over 140 carries combined in his last 2 seasons.

RANKNAMEPOSITIONBET TYPELINEODDSHIT RATEHIT %OPPDEF RANK
1J. HallQBRush Ydsu26.5-1052/2100VS GB30
2T. AllgeierRBRush Ydso28.5-1159/1090@ CHI1
3T. EtienneRBRush Ydsu60.5-1159/1090VS CAR21
4J. GibbsRBRush Ydso48.5-1208/1080@ DAL19
5D. MontgomeryRBRush Ydso55.5-1158/1080@ DAL19
6S. BarkleyRBRush Ydso64.5-1158/1080VS LA13
7M. RudolphQBRush Ydsu7.5-1118/1080@ SEA27
8J. StidhamQBRush Ydsu27.5-1158/1080VS LAC17
9T. ChandlerRBRush Ydsu61.5-1108/1080VS GB30
10E. StickQBRush Ydsu19.5-1153/475@ DEN31

Receiving Yards Prop Hit Rates Last 10 games

Rachaad White has had a breakout year for the TB Bucs and there is no reason to think he does not finish strong over the next two weeks. Facing a Saints defense that does rank well against RB receiving yards does not deter the pick. Ride White to the “over” promise land on Sunday.

RANKNAMEPOSITIONBET TYPELINEODDSHIT RATEHIT %OPPDEF RANK
1A. PerryWRRec Ydso15.5-1105/683.3@ TB15
2J. ConnerRBRec Ydsu13.5-1158/1080@ PHI4
3R. WhiteRBRec Ydso22.5-1158/1080VS NO20
4F. MoreauTERec Ydso9.5-1158/1080@ TB15
5A. KamaraRBRec Ydso32.5-1158/1080@ TB15
6G. KittleTERec Ydso51.5-1158/1080@ WAS29
7T. ChandlerRBRec Ydsu12.5-1108/1080VS GB22
8C. BrownRBRec Ydsu11.5-1206/875@ KC8
9J. FergusonTERec Ydsu49.5-1157/1070VS DET2
10K. RaymondWRRec Ydso14.5-1157/1070@ DAL7

Top NFL Player Prop Hit Rates Overall L10 Games

RANKNAMEPOSITIONBET TYPELINEODDSHIT RATEHIT %OPPDEF RANK
1T. AllgeierRBRush Ydso28.5-1159/1090@ CHI1
2J. AllenQBInto0.5-1159/1090VS NE10
3A. PerryWRRush + Rec Ydso15.5-1195/683.3@ TB15
4A. PerryWRRec Ydso15.5-1105/683.3@ TB15
5C. LambWRAnytime TDo0.5-1508/1080VS DET25
6J. GibbsRBRush Ydso48.5-1208/1080@ DAL19
7D. MontgomeryRBRush + Rec Ydso66.5-1178/1080@ DAL7
8D. MontgomeryRBRush Ydso55.5-1158/1080@ DAL19
9J. HurtsQBAnytime TDo0.5-2808/1080VS ARI31
10K. HerbertRBRush + Rec Ydso33.5-1218/1080VS ATL19

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  • Every pick has dynamic and variable payout multipliers.
  • $500 deposit match is an industry best
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