NFL Player Props Trends

NFL Player Props Best Bets Week 9

Call us a bit lazy if you want, but we are consolidating our NFL best bets into one post for week 9 player props action.

Our NFL best bets focus on player prop bets from DeVonta Smith vs. Dallas, Demario Douglas vs. Washington, and Derek Carr vs. Chicago.

Devonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions vs. Cowboys

Smith, the 29th ranked wide receiver in fantasy, has shown his prowess in deep targets, sitting comfortably at the 18th spot. However, similar to AJ Brown, Smith has struggled to make an impact in the red zone, having only been targeted twice this season. Nevertheless, Smith has the potential to emerge as the main beneficiary of a game plan heavily reliant on play-action, especially in the upcoming matchup against Dallas.

Prop Best BetDraftKings Sportsbook
Devonta Smith Over 4.5 receptions+120

Impressively, Smith leads the team with a remarkable 25.3% target share and boasts an impressive 1.99 Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) on play-action passes. His contributions extend beyond targets, as he also commands a significant 33.3% air-yard share. Additionally, Smith and Brown share the team lead with a 29.8% first-read share on play-action passes.

In the upcoming matchup, Smith is predicted to face off against DaRon Bland, who has a catch rate of 47.2% and a passer rating of 22.6 when targeted. He will also contend with Stephon Gilmore, who allows a 50% catch rate and has a passer rating of 74.3 when targeted. Smith is expected to run approximately 71% of his routes against these defensive opponents.

Considering his overall performance and the favorable matchup, Smith is poised to provide significant value in Week 9. With all these factors combined, he is projected to hold the status of a WR2 in terms of positional value.

Demario Douglas Over 46.5 Receiving Yards vs. Wash

Last week, Douglas took charge for the Pats, leading the team in both routes ran and targets. His rise coincided with Kendrick Bourne’s injury, positioning Douglas as the potential successor in the coveted “WR1” role for New England.

Prop Best BetDraftKings Sportsbook
Demario Douglas Over 46.5 rec yards-125

Now, let’s talk about the opposition. Brace yourself, because the Commanders possess one of the most feeble secondaries in the entire league. Their inability to contain wide receivers has been glaring, allowing a mind-boggling amount of yards to their opponents. Yes, you read that right – the Commanders hold the unfortunate distinction of surrendering the MOST yards to opposing wide receivers across all teams in football.

To put it bluntly, the Commanders’ defensive unit presents such a target-rich environment for wide receivers that even I couldn’t resist identifying a prime candidate to exploit this weekend. Trust me, this seems like an incredibly solid option that you should seriously consider capitalizing on!

Derek Carr Over 252.5 Passing Yards vs. Chicago Bears

Ever since Week 6, Carr has been injecting some much-needed energy into the world of fantasy football. Out of 28 quarterbacks who meet the criteria, he proudly sits at the 13th spot in terms of yards per attempt. Furthermore, he impressively ranks ninth in hero throw rate and secures the 11th position in terms of fantasy points per game.

Prop Best BetDraftKings Sportsbook
Derek Carr Over 252.5 pass yards-115

Taking a closer look at his recent performance, Carr emerges as the runner-up in passing attempts and passing yards per game across his last three matchups. It seems that Carr is on track to deliver yet another QB1-worthy performance this week.

The Bears, his upcoming opponent, have been leaking yards at a concerning rate, allowing the tenth-highest yards per attempt. Not only that, but they have also generously surrendered the second-highest number of passing touchdowns, amplifying Carr’s prospects even further. Additionally, their eighth-highest adjusted completion rate leaves plenty of room for Carr to exploit.

Considering all these factors, it’s clear that Carr holds exceptional positional value for Week 9, solidifying his standing as a QB1-worthy option.

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