Top Home Run Prop Picks for Tuesday 4/16/24

Home run props today

Tonight’s Major League Baseball action serves up a delicious 2021 World Series replay, with the Atlanta Braves already clinching a 6-1 triumph over the Houston Astros in last night’s series opener. The stage is set for another encounter at Houston’s Minute Maid Park, with the first pitch slated for 8:10 p.m. ET.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+360 HR Odds Today) 

Hunter Brown’s start to 2024 has been less than stellar, sporting a hefty 16.43 ERA and a 3.91 WHIP in two losses. He’s allowed two homers over just 7.2 innings, indicating a vulnerable 2.35 HR/9 rate. On the flip side, Ronald Acuna Jr., the reigning NL MVP, hasn’t yet found his home run stride this season despite smashing a career-best 41 last year. However, with a strong track record against Brown — hitting .667 with two doubles in three at-bats — tonight could very well see Acuna launch his first homer of the season. Let’s bet on Acuna Jr. lighting up the scoreboard tonight.

Seth Brown (+475 HR Odds Today) 

Shifting over the AL, the Oakland Athletics, off to a solid start this year, hope to rebound from a 3-1 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. The action shifts to Oakland Coliseum with first pitch at 9:40 p.m. ET, featuring JP Sears for Oakland and Lance Lynn for St. Louis on the mound.

Lance Lynn has been reasonably effective for the Cardinals, maintaining a 2.63 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, despite a troubling 1.98 HR/9 rate due to three home runs allowed in just over three starts. This vulnerability to homers might just play into the hands of Seth Brown tonight. With one homer already under his belt this season and a history of success against right-handers (hitting all 14 of his home runs against them last year), Brown stands a good chance to go deep against Lynn, against whom he has a .286 average and two home runs in 14 at-bats. It seems like a worthy gamble to back Seth Brown for a home run tonight.

HR Prop Factors to Consider

When betting on home run props, several factors should be taken into account:

  1. Player Performance: Historical performance of a player, including recent performance and home run statistics.
  2. Pitcher Matchups: The history and performance of the opposing pitcher, especially their tendency to allow home runs or NFRI rankings.
  3. Ballpark Factors: Some ballparks are known to be more conducive to home runs, which can influence betting decisions.
  4. Weather Conditions: Wind speed and direction, humidity, and other weather conditions can affect how far a ball travels.
  5. Odds and Payouts: Odds for home run prop bets can vary significantly based on the factors mentioned above. Understanding how odds work and calculating potential payouts is crucial for successful betting and for HR picks on PrizePicks.
  6. Strategy: Successful betting on home run props often involves thorough research and analysis. Bettors might look at advanced statistics, player public betting trends, and other data to make informed decisions.

HR King Odds Going Into The Season

Aaron Judge+350 +420 +400+375+400
Matt Olson+600 +850 +700+650+700
Pete Alonso+700 +850+1000 +750+800 
Kyle Schwarber+750+1200 +1100+750+1000
Juan Soto+900 +1400 +1400+1100+1600 
Shohei Ohtani+900+900+900+1100 +900
Yordan Alvarez+1200+1300+1400+1400+1100 
Fernando Tatis Jr.+1900 +2300 +2200+2000+1600 
Ronald Acuna Jr.+1900+1900+1900+2000 +1600 
Austin Riley+1900 +2300+3000+3000+5000 

Home Run Leaders Last Season

1M. Olson162608127172882735450.61393671041670.2830.3890.6040.993
2K. Schwarber160585108115481914743.71042771262150.1970.3430.4740.817
3P. Alonso15356492123542124643.0118286651480.2180.3200.5070.827
4S. Ohtani135497102151732684451.695325911430.3040.4120.6541.066
5R. Acuña Jr.1596431492171373544139.310638380840.3370.4160.5961.012
6M. Ozuna14453084146753014041.3101298571340.2750.3480.5620.910
7J. García148555108136682903936.7107282651750.2450.3280.5080.836
8M. Betts152584126179994013942.8107338961070.3070.4080.5790.987
9L. Robert Jr.14554690144693613837.780296301720.2640.3150.5420.857
10A. Judge1063677998451603736.975225881300.2670.4060.6131.019
11M. Riley1596361171791063333736.197329591720.2810.3450.5170.863
12M. Muncy13548295102481713634.1105229851530.2120.3330.4750.808
13J. Soler13650177124652303636.875255651410.2480.3390.5090.848
14J. Soto16256897156883213537.11092951321290.2750.4100.5190.930
15J. Burger14048871122592813439.180254321460.2500.3100.5200.830
16J. Martinez11343261117552723334.6103247341490.2710.3210.5720.893
17C. Seager11947788155804203334.89629649880.3250.3880.6211.009
18R. Devers15358090156893403333.6100289621260.2690.3490.4980.847
19C. Walker15758286150793623336.1102289621270.2580.3330.4970.830
20O. Albies14859696167993053333.5109306461070.2800.3360.5130.849
21J. Rodríguez1556541021801093723231.6103317471750.2750.3330.4850.818
22Y. Alvarez11441077119642313130.69723769920.2900.4050.5780.983
23I. Paredes14349271123682403134.198240581040.2500.3520.4880.840
24F. Lindor159599108152863323133.698282661370.2540.3360.4710.807
25S. Torkelson15960688142763413132.795271671710.2340.3140.4470.762
26B. Rooker13746361114632013031.369226491720.2460.3290.4880.817
27C. Raleigh14551378119652313031.075234541580.2320.3060.4560.762
28M. Machado13854375140892103027.691251501090.2580.3190.4620.782
29R. Witt Jr.1586419717710828113033.296317401210.2760.3190.4950.813
30K. Tucker15757497163923752935.111229780920.2840.3690.5170.886
31N. Castellanos157626791701023722931.3106298361850.2720.3110.4760.788
32F. Freeman1616371312121225922935.2102362721210.3330.4110.5680.979
33M. Semien1626701221851124042932.9100320721100.2760.3480.4780.826
34G. Henderson150560100143772992832.782274561590.2550.3250.4890.814
35A. Santander15359181151814112832.695278551520.2550.3230.4700.794
36L. Thomas1576281011681013632831.086294361760.2680.3150.4680.783
37N. Gorman1194065996521702728.976194531480.2360.3280.4780.805
38C. Morel1073886295491732627.469196361330.2450.3110.5050.816
39J. Suwinski14444763100512122632.774203751720.2240.3390.4540.793
40B. Drury12548561128693032628.583242251360.2640.3080.4990.807
41C. Bellinger13049995153972912628.99726240870.3070.3560.5250.881
42N. Arenado14456071150962622627.393258411010.2680.3170.4610.778
43V. Guerrero Jr.156602781591033002627.694267671000.2640.3450.4440.788
44T. Hernández160625701611042922627.893272382110.2580.3050.4350.741
45T. Turner1556391021701043552629.176293451500.2660.3200.4590.778
46J. Siri1013385875351322525.556167201300.2220.2670.4940.761
47F. Alvarez1223795179421202523.763166341100.2080.2830.4380.721
48C. Carroll1555651161629631102535.275288571250.2870.3630.5100.873
49K. Marte15056994157972692529.482276711090.2760.3580.4850.844
50F. Tatis Jr.14157591149903312527.078259531410.259

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